Bitcoin Bull Market Signal Emerges as Long-Held Coins Go Dormant
On-chain data shows older Bitcoin holdings going dormant, a pattern analysts say marks the early stages of a new bull market cycle.
A drop in the proportion of Bitcoin's realized capitalization tied to coins that have not moved in 18 months or more is signaling what analysts describe as the early stages of a bull market, according to new on-chain analysis published by Cointelegraph.
The metric, which tracks the share of realized cap attributed to long-dormant holdings, tends to decline when older coins are redistributed or activated — a pattern historically associated with shifting market sentiment and renewed investor participation. When seasoned holders begin moving coins they have sat on for well over a year, it can indicate that a new wave of demand is absorbing supply that had been locked away.
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Analysts characterize the current reading as consistent with prior cycles in which Bitcoin underwent a sustained price rally following periods of extended accumulation. The framing of "early stages" suggests the move may not yet be fully reflected in spot prices, leaving room for further upside if the pattern follows historical precedent.
The realized capitalization measure differs from standard market capitalization in that it values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain rather than the current spot price, making it a more nuanced gauge of cost basis and holder behavior across the network.
While on-chain signals have historically offered useful context for trend identification, analysts caution that no single metric is predictive in isolation, and broader macroeconomic conditions continue to influence digital asset markets. Continue reading at Cointelegraph.
