TD Cowen Raises 2026 Bitcoin Target to $109,000 After Q3 Beat
The bank reversed a September cut, citing Bitcoin finishing Q3 above its own price-deck assumption. A 2029 target of $280,000 was also set.
TD Cowen lifted its year-end 2026 Bitcoin price projection to roughly $109,000 from $97,500, partially reversing a cut made just five weeks earlier, according to a report from Crypto Briefing. The bank simultaneously established a long-range target of $280,000 for 2029, with the revision dated October 8.
The adjustment represents the latest in a series of swings from the firm's digital-asset research team, led by analyst Lance Vitanza. TD Cowen opened the year forecasting Bitcoin near $177,000 by end-2026, then progressively trimmed that outlook to roughly $140,000, then $100,000 in late June, and finally $97,500 on September 2 — a cut the firm attributed to price weakness rather than any structural change in its thesis.
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The immediate trigger for the upgrade was Bitcoin's third-quarter performance. Vitanza disclosed in a Bitcoin Magazine interview that the firm's internal price deck had assumed Bitcoin would close Q3 at $76,235, but the asset finished the period several thousand dollars above that level. That outperformance prompted a reassessment of longer-dated targets. Vitanza also cited an end-2027 projection of $132,750 and said the firm continues to expect annual Bitcoin appreciation in the high-20% to 30% range.
A mathematical tension exists within those figures. Compounding $109,000 at 30% annually over three years yields roughly $240,000, making the $280,000 2029 objective difficult to reconcile without assuming accelerating gains or a different baseline. The bank kept its $260 price target on Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy — unchanged, with Vitanza noting that share issuance is expected to partially offset the benefit of higher Bitcoin prices for shareholders.
Analysts caution that sell-side target revisions trail rather than lead price action, and that ETF flows and spot-market confirmation will matter more than any headline forecast change in determining whether Bitcoin can close the gap to TD Cowen's new projections by year-end. Continue reading at Forexlive.
