Bitcoin ETF Flows Swing Wildly as Price Tests $81,300 Break-Even
US spot bitcoin ETFs posted a slim weekly net inflow of $301.2M but shed $773.5M in the final two sessions, pushing bitcoin near a critical cost-basis level.
US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds swung from strong inflows to heavy outflows last week, leaving a provisional net gain of $301.2 million for the week ending around October 23, according to preliminary Farside data. The fragile result ended two consecutive weeks of net outflows but masked significant volatility beneath the surface.
The week started with momentum. Spot bitcoin ETFs absorbed $526.7 million Monday, $23.2 million Tuesday and $524.8 million Wednesday. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust drew $665.2 million on Monday alone — its largest single-session inflow since October 2025. The reversal came swiftly: Thursday produced $635.6 million in outflows, the steepest daily withdrawal since June, followed by an additional $137.9 million on Friday. IBIT finished with a weekly net inflow of $565.7 million despite shedding more than $364 million over those final two days.
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Bitcoin's price tracked the mood. The cryptocurrency fell roughly 3.45% during the two-day outflow period and briefly dipped below $80,000 over the weekend before stabilizing near $80,600. Early-week buying failed to push prices meaningfully higher, underscoring the limits of short-term flow data as a demand signal. For the month of October, US spot bitcoin ETFs remain approximately $313.5 million in net outflows.
Coinbase Institutional has flagged the $80,000–$82,000 range as a pivotal support zone. The firm estimates the average ETF holder's cost basis at $81,300, near the 50-day moving average of approximately $81,700. A sustained break below that band could leave the typical ETF investor underwater and trigger additional selling pressure, with Coinbase warning of potential downside toward $73,000–$75,000 if support fails to hold.
A broader structural shift is also underway. Corporate treasury buyers accounted for roughly $14.5 billion in bitcoin purchases in the first half of 2026, while spot ETFs recorded nearly $5 billion in net selling over the same period. Since August, the dynamic has reversed: ETFs have attracted about $6.4 billion versus $1.5 billion for corporate treasuries. With Strategy — the dominant corporate accumulator — scaling back weekly purchases to a few hundred coins, ETF flows now carry outsized weight in determining price direction. Continue reading at Forexlive.
